Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Now THAT'S funny...

So Eddie Lampert fires Sear's CEO and also announces that each division will be a separately managed entity...what - 2 days after the recommendation appeared here? Yeah - like I said - send me a check!

Ok, enough financial genius. What's REALLY got my panties in the bunch is finally realizing what language I SHOULD have been learning in high school, not what I actually wasted my time on...

Last year I'm in Hawaii (yeah, I know - a long way from Kabul), snorkling around when a notice a local guy that had about 20 Japanese tourists with him suiting up for a dive. The interesting things was, he spoke PERFECT Japanese, and had complete command of his audience. This went on for the week or so I was there, each day with a different group of tourists from Japan.

Then it hit me - what are these guys paying him? Figure about $100 a head (at least), times 20 heads = $2000 a day gross, less, call it $500 in expenses...still, $1500 for half a days work? In Hawaii? On the beach?

This is the part where you go "Boy, aren't *I* glad I can order beers and ask where the bathroom is in Tiajuana..."

Moral of the story - do what everyone else in the world outside the U.S. does - learn the language of the countries that have all the money, not the ones that don't...

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

One piece of poo + another piece of poo = greatest investment of all time?


So here lies Sears Holdings - off 50% or more from it's all-time high. What's wrong? Do they hold toxic-tranche CDO's?

Nope.

They sell clothes. Badly.

I realize when Eddie Lampert bought the bonds of a bankrupt K-Mart back-in-the-day, that there was some underlying value in the real estate holdings and inventory, bully to him (and Marty Whitman of 3rd Avenue Funds) for doing the due diligence and knocking it out of the park. Bring it out of Chapter 11, convert the debt to equity and get the hell out - that's how's it's done, right?

Apparently not...

Fresh off a weekend of crack-smoking, he goes out and decides that they should merge with Sears...possibly an even LARGER piece of shit. The market goes crazy - "Eddie Lampert is the new Warren Buffett!" proclaim the pundits, and both stocks take off like a rocket, headed toward wedded bliss.

I laughed heartily, wondering why this putz was going to throw away his reputation as a savvy hedge fund manager for a life of being called "The Dumbest Man In Retail". Poo + Poo = A large piece of poo, not the next Microsoft.

It's only now that the market is figuring out that this is a $20 stock, not a $200 one...idiots...

Here's the answer you are looking for Eddie: break what's left into a tool store (Craftsman), a clothing store (LL Bean), and an appliance/electronics store (Kenmore). You can Paypal me a McKinsey-esque consulting fee later...I know you're good for it...

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Countrywide, Part Deux...


You'll remember my call of Countrywide going under on August 16th, right? Armed with this information, it looks like no shortage of large institutional idiots got their checkbooks out and bought large positions around $20 a share. Well done guys - it's now $8...and that's after a run-up in the shares today thanks to "unidentified sources" (aka, some hedge fund that is long and desperately trying to unload shares pretending he "knows an insider") floating a rumor that B of A was going to buy it...

As I am fond of saying, "beware the CEO with a scratch golf handicap"... I can now also add another investing rule..."beware the CEO that has a George Hamilton-complex regarding his tan"...